Two MVP-caliber quarterbacks, a playoff rematch, and a spread that barely nudges off a pick’em. Sunday Night Football opens with Baltimore at Buffalo on September 7, 8:20 p.m. ET, and the market is siding with the road team: Ravens -1.5 (moneyline around -125) with a total of 51.5. It’s the third meeting in a year after a split in 2024—Baltimore rolled 35-10 in the regular season, then Buffalo edged the Divisional Round 27-25, both in Orchard Park. That recent history sets up a clean lens for how these teams match up now.
Matchup breakdown: why the market leans Baltimore
Baltimore’s case starts with stability and balance. Todd Monken’s offense found its groove last season with Lamar Jackson’s efficiency and tempo, and the addition of Derrick Henry made the run game heavier without losing spread flexibility. Zay Flowers was a Year 1 playmaker and figures to take on more volume, while Mark Andrews returns to his red-zone role that often dictates coverage calls. When the Ravens are right, they force defenses to pick a poison: load the box for Henry and you’re exposed in play-action; sit light and it’s a long night of five- and six-yard runs.
On defense, the Ravens remain built on disguise and speed. Interior pressure from Justin Madubuike unlocks their simulated pressure looks, and Roquan Smith’s range cleans up what the front doesn’t. Kyle Hamilton gives them a movable chess piece who can erase tight ends, live in the slot, or close on crossers. Yes, Baltimore changed coordinators (Zach Orr took over play-calling), but the language and principles were intact, and the personnel continuity matters more against a quarterback like Josh Allen.
Buffalo, meanwhile, reshaped its identity around Allen’s dual-threat gravity and a younger pass-catching group. Joe Brady’s offense leans into quick wins for Dalton Kincaid, high-percentage throws to Khalil Shakir, and the contested-catch profile of Keon Coleman. Without a true alpha in the mold of Stefon Diggs, the Bills operate cleaner when Allen is on schedule and his legs are a feature, not just a bailout. James Cook’s space game is the outlet; the designed QB run remains the hammer, especially inside the 10.
Defensively, the Bills still tackle well at the second level when healthy and can win with a front keyed by Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau. Taron Johnson is one of the league’s best slot corners, and Bobby Babich’s group showed it can play top-down and force patient drives. But run fits were a week-to-week story last season, especially when the front had to live in nickel. If Baltimore stays ahead of the sticks, Buffalo’s defense gets stuck between keeping two safeties deep and committing enough bodies to the box to deter Henry.
So why the slight edge to Baltimore on the road? It’s not about revenge or vibes. It’s about two-way reliability. The Ravens rarely need the game-script to cooperate. They can play fast or slow, win on early downs, and throw changeups through personnel and formation. Buffalo’s margin tends to swing on high-leverage plays: Allen’s explosives, red-zone sequencing, and defensive turnovers. In Week 1—when tackling can be messy and execution isn’t fully crisp—that steady drumbeat favors the Ravens.
Totals-wise, the 51.5 sits just below last year’s playoff closing number (which landed 27-25). This opener comes without the exhaustive postseason film study and with offensive continuity on both sides. Both quarterbacks extend plays. Both teams create explosives from misdirection and option looks. And early September in Orchard Park usually isn’t a wind game—always check the day-of forecast, but you’re not counting on weather to kill drives here. That’s a recipe for points.
Best bets, numbers to know, and how this could play out
Against the spread: The strongest lean is Baltimore -1.5 at near even money. The logic tracks with expert Jason Logan’s read: you don’t need a revenge narrative for value. You need a team that can script and rescript within a game. Baltimore can. If the Ravens jump ahead, Henry’s workload takes over and the play-action deep shots start to hit. If they trail, Lamar’s pocket rhythm and scramble drill keep drives alive. Buffalo can match, but they’re more dependent on Allen conjuring solutions.
Total: Over 51.5 (-115 range) fits the pace and personnel. Baltimore’s run game creates explosives without needing 12-play drives; Buffalo has red-zone designs that turn into six instead of three. Week 1 defenses often trade structure for speed and miss more tackles than they will in October. One turnover can derail an Over, but given how both quarterbacks generate chunk plays, the more likely pivot is a short field that helps it.
Player props worth consideration line up with how these offenses score:
- Josh Allen anytime touchdown (+106): In tight games, Buffalo leans on QB power, bash looks, and red-zone scrambles. Baltimore’s man-match in the red area can open lanes if Hamilton carries the tight end and contain loses leverage.
- Derrick Henry over 17.5 carries (+100): If the Ravens are favored and live between the tackles, volume follows. Henry’s presence also shortens the game and protects a lead. Even in neutral scripts, Monken has shown he’ll bank rush attempts to set up shot plays.
- Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown (+180): If Buffalo overplays Henry on zone-read or split-flow looks, the keeper is there. It only takes one inside the 5.
- Mark Andrews anytime touchdown (+190): Andrews remains Lamar’s first read in condensed areas. Buffalo’s nickel replaces size with quickness; that’s a mismatch window for Andrews on glance, seams, and pivots.
Trends add color, not certainty. Buffalo went 4-1 ATS in primetime last season and has won three of the last four against the Ravens, including the playoff win. Baltimore, though, has covered five straight regular-season games versus the Bills. Those point in different directions, which is another way of saying the spread is where it should be—tilted slightly toward the more complete roster.
Game flow notes that tie to the bets:
- If Baltimore leads early: expect Henry’s carry count to sprint toward the over and Andrews to get a shot off play-action in the red zone. Live totals can still climb if Buffalo throws into light boxes.
- If Buffalo leads: Allen’s TD equity rises as designed runs and scramble rates spike. The Over still lives with Baltimore’s explosive rate and late-game tempo.
- If wind unexpectedly picks up: totals drift down, but short fields from aggressive fourth-down calls can offset. Watch yards per play and red-zone trips more than raw time of possession.
Matchups inside the matchup worth watching: Taron Johnson vs. Zay Flowers in the slot; Dalton Kincaid vs. Kyle Hamilton leverage; Madubuike against the Bills’ interior in passing situations; and edge contain on Lamar’s keepers. Win two of those four and you probably win the game.
There’s also the human element. Andrews’ dropped 2-point conversion in last year’s playoff loss has lingered in the lead-up. That matters only insofar as usage tends to follow trust, and Lamar’s trust in Andrews in the red zone is about as bankable as it gets.
As for the scoreboard, a reasonable projection is Baltimore by one score, something in the 30-24 range that matches the market and the way these rosters want to play. That aligns with Ravens vs Bills predictions backing the Ravens -1.5 and the Over. If you’re structuring a card, a simple approach: Ravens -1.5 as the anchor, the Over as a smaller position, and the Allen/Andrews/Lamar touchdown angles plus Henry’s carries as prop sprinkles. Keep an eye on injury reports and the morning forecast in Orchard Park before you click submit—those two things swing more Week 1 tickets than any trend ever will.